By Daniel Ish, Jared Etthinger, Christopher Ferris, #RAND

« This research develops methodologies for understanding the mission impact of deploying artificial intelligence (AI) systems to support intelligence missions as a function of the performance achieved by the system. A two-pronged approach is pursued, with a general framework enabling qualitative analysis and a supplemental model of a particular
class of systems with quantitative results. Our results underscore the importance of critically assessing how the performance of AI systems is measured and tailoring the metrics chosen to the function the system will perform. The research reported here was completed in March 2021 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the Cyber and Intelligence Policy Center of the R AND National Security Research Division (NSRD), which operates the R AND National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence enterprise. »

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