Advanced Analytic Techniques: Bayesian Reasoning Method For Intelligence Using Natural Frequencies

Advanced Analytic Techniques: Bayesian Reasoning Method For Intelligence Using Natural Frequencies.

Jennifer Lee’s 2007 Mercyhurst thesis contains three experiments that suggest an efficient way for teaching a Bayesian reasoning technique to intelligence analysts and indicate that using natural frequencies when modeling a problem increases forecasting accuracy compared to modeling a problem using conditional probabilities when solving intelligence-related Bayesian problems.